F1. Future landscape development: forecast, visions and scenarios
Michał Sobala (Polish Geographical Society - Cultural Landscape Commission), michal.sobala@us.edu.pl
Krzysztof Badora (Polish Geographical Society - Cultural Landscape Commission; Opole University)
Urszula Myga-Piątek (Polish Geographical Society - Cultural Landscape Commission; University of Silesia)
Katarzyna Pukowiec-Kurda (Polish Geographical Society - Cultural Landscape Commission; University of Silesia)
Anna Żemła-Siesicka (Polish Geographical Society - Cultural Landscape Commission; University of Silesia)
Summary
Contemporary global processes are the factors that have consequences in landscape transformation. They can be analysed at various spatial levels: local, regional and global, which determines the accuracy and probability of predictions. Predicting landscape changes is challenging. Despite some difficulties concerning that issue, it seems obvious to try to predict what the landscape in the future will be. This session focuses on presenting the results of research on that issue – the prognosis for landscape development.
Description
Global demographic, social, cultural, political and economic changes that are developing ever more quickly, and also the disturbing effects of climate change are the factors that are likely to have consequences for dynamic landscapes’ transformation in the immediate future. These transformations will take place at a different rate in many parts of the world. Therefore, determining them should take place at various spatial levels: local, regional and global. These spatial scales will determine the accuracy and probability of the predictions that are made.
A detailed study of the effects of driving forces determines the high probability of an accurate assessment of future landscape effects. What is more, it makes distinguishing between visions and high-precision scenarios possible.
Predicting landscape changes is challenging and has so far been undertaken very rarely in research. Nevertheless, it is a vital element of theoretical scientific research. There are many difficulties arising primarily from the need to take into account a large number of variables. These variables are often difficult to determine. The magnitude and direction of future driving forces that determine the dynamics and pace of landscape changes are unknown. Furthermore, it is also impossible to predict all the future driving forces in accordance with the current state of knowledge. Nevertheless, these difficulties do not exempt scientists from attempting to create scenarios for the development of future landscapes. It seems obvious to develop the prognosis for landscape development and to try to predict what the landscape in the future will be. This subject area includes:
- analysing the driving forces that will affect landscape changes at various spatial levels (local, regional and global),
- analysing possible directions of the transformation of cultural landscapes – case studies,
- estimating the pace and dynamics of landscape changes.
Impact
We are going to publish the outcomes of the symposium in the special issue of Dissertation of Cultural Landscape Commission. This is a journal published by the Cultural Landscape Commission of the Polish Geographical Society. It is an interdisciplinary journal due to its multi-pronged subject of research – cultural landscape. The journal is addressed primarily to geographers, landscape ecologists and landscape architects. More information: http://www.cultural-landscape.us.edu.pl/index.php/en